Divergent Outcomes in 2023 Merger Cases – An Anomaly or More to Come?
Following Brexit, the the Competition and Markets Authority ("CMA") and European Commission ("EC") frequently carry out parallel reviews of major global transactions. While the majority of these parallel cases reach the same conclusion, a material number of high-profile deals faced different outcomes – ranging from Phase 1 clearance vs. Phase 2 reviews in different jurisdictions to unconditional clearances in one jurisdiction with a prohibition in the other jurisdiction.
Of the merger control reviews formally opened and reviewed by both the EC and CMA in 2023, 40% resulted in different outcomes. Of the cases opened in 2022 but subject to ongoing review in 2023, there were several high-profile examples of divergent decisions. These included: Microsoft/Activision (where the EC conditionally approved the original acquisition following a CMA prohibition, and the CMA eventually accepted remedies and cleared a restructured transaction 6 months after the EC’s clearance, following which the deal closed, even though there is ongoing FTC litigation in the U.S.), Booking.com/eTraveli (where the EC prohibited the deal while the CMA unconditionally approved it after a Phase 1 review), and Broadcom/VMware (where both the CMA and EC undertook Phase 2 reviews, but the CMA approved the deal without remedies while the EC required behavioural remedies as a condition of clearance).
Divergent outcomes reflect several factors, including different timelines, legal frameworks, market conditions, and approaches to remedies.
Based on these results in 2023, merging parties will need to consider ways to mitigate the divergence risk, including whether and, if so, when and how to restructure and renotify transactions when issues are identified during reviews in the UK and EC and tailoring contractual provisions (e.g., break fees and long-stop dates) to the circumstances of a particular transaction.
CMA Proposes Changes to Phase 2 Review
Against the backdrop of heightened scrutiny – particularly due to certain high-profile divergent merger decisions – in November 2023 the CMA unveiled proposals to improve its Phase 2 review process (see our recent blog post). Key proposed changes include increasing and formalising the opportunities for engagement with the CMA, introducing earlier opportunities to discuss remedies, and generally streamlining the Phase 2 process. Although these changes may increase the opportunity for coordination of remedies across jurisdictions, mitigating the risk of different outcomes between the UK and EU will continue to drive regulatory strategy in cross-border transactions in the coming year.